Jeffrey A. Friedman

Assistant Professor

I am an Assistant Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, where I study national security policy. I am particularly interested in understanding how national security officials assess uncertainty, and what kinds of theoretical and empirical tools can help to address this challenge. At Dartmouth, I teach courses on foreign policy, decision making, intelligence, civil conflict, and empirical research in security studies.

Curriculum Vitae Personal Website
HB 6108
A.B. Harvard College
Ph.D. Harvard University

Selected Publications

“Why Assessing Estimative Accuracy is Feasible and Desirable” Intelligence and National Security, forthcoming                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    “Using Power Laws to Estimate Conflict Size” Journal of Conflict Resolution, forthcoming  


“Handling and Mishandling Estimative Probability: Likelihood, Confidence, and the Search for Bin Laden” with Richard Zeckhauser, Intelligence and National Security, Vol. 30, No. 1 (February 2015), pp. 77-99   


“Testing the Surge: Why Did Violence Decline in Iraq in 2007?” with Stephen Biddle and Jacob N. Shapiro, International Security, Vol. 37, No. 1 (2012), pp. 7-40 


“Assessing Uncertainty in Intelligence” with Richard Zeckhauser, Intelligence and National Security, Vol. 27, No. 6 (2012), pp. 824-847  


 “Civil War Intervention and the Problem of Iraq” with Stephen Biddle and Stephen Long, International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 56, No. 1 (2012), pp. 85-98                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        “Manpower and Counterinsurgency: Empirical Foundations for Theory and Doctrine” Security Studies, Vol. 20, No. 4 (2011), pp. 556-591  


2006 Lebanon Campaign and the Future of Warfare: Implications for Army and Defense Policy with Stephen Biddle (Carlisle, Penn.: U.S. Army War College, 2008)