Russia Is Forcing Conscripts To Fight, While Ukrainians Are Desperate To Enlist

"The relative morale of the two sides is playing a key role in shaping how the war is being fought," said Jason Lyall, an associate professor in transnational studies at Dartmouth College. 

He told VICE World News that on the Ukrainian side, Zelenskyy's decision to remain in Kyiv and his skilled media presence has boosted morale, increased the number of volunteers joining the resistance, and inspired confidence among international backers like NATO. 

"On the Russian side, I do think low morale has created enormous problems for the military. It's led to the unusually high abandonment and capture of armoured vehicles, fouled logistics lines, and forced the Russian Army to rely on indirect fire like artillery to bombard cities to regain momentum."

While patriotism, defiance and esprit de corps seem to be fuelling the Ukrainian resistance for now, it's unclear how long this will last. Russia appears to have momentarily wound back its ground offensive and resorted to broadstroke, indiscriminate bombing strikes on Ukrainian settlements in an attempt to turn the tide. As civilians become trapped in shelled cities and villages—cut off from medicine, heat and functioning water systems—the resolve of the defence forces may wane. 

Lyall pointed out: "Morale in wartime can be fluid… and so it still remains unclear what will happen once Russia encircles the main cities, cutting food supplies and electricity."

In any case, he adds, it's important not to overstate the power of morale in winning the war. Russia—which has considerably higher troop numbers, as well as more advanced weapons and air superiority—could still win the conflict by sheer magnitude alone. 

At the same time though, Lyall suggests that if the rot of discontent runs deep enough in the Russian ranks then it may well be enough to erode the foundations of Putin's war machine, and ultimately prevent it from gaining any more traction in Ukraine.

"The key unknown factor right now? What the average Russian soldier thinks about the war," he said. "If they're indifferent, a sudden Russian victory, especially on the Donbass, might boost morale across the army. If they actively hate the war, however, then the Russian Army is unlikely to improve much, and will likely become increasingly brutal toward civilians and its own soldiers as the war drags on."

Read the full article HERE on Vice News.